paint & coating industry prodiction 2023
Commercial vehicle coatings market demand has been repaired
In 2022, commercial vehicle paint is the most miserable category. Due to the continuous decline in commercial vehicle sales and the widespread quarantine policy of the epidemic, logistics is suspended, the demand for freight transport is reduced, and the demand for commercial vehicle coatings continues to be depressed. At the same time, the two important industries of commercial vehicle transportation, the downturn in the real estate market and the state regulation of heavy pollution industry, commercial vehicle market demand has also been very suppressed, and then affected the commercial vehicle paint market demand.
According to the statistical analysis of China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in November 2022, the economic downward pressure is increasing, the impact of the epidemic, commercial vehicles are still at a low level. From January to November 2022, the production and sales of commercial vehicles in China were 2.927 million and 3.01 million, respectively, down 31.9% and 32.1% year on year, continuing to show double-digit declines. Affected by the low demand in the commercial vehicle market, the demand for commercial vehicle coatings continues to be low.
However, by 2023, the market demand for commercial vehicle coatings will be restored. The main reasons are: 1. Epidemic prevention and control, rapid recovery of logistics system; 2. 2. Commercial vehicle sales hit bottom and rebounded. According to the forecast of China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, China's commercial vehicle market will hit bottom and rebound in 2023, with the total sales volume expected to reach 3.8 million in 2023, up 15% year on year; 3. The Chinese government launched "Financial Article 16" and began to vigorously help the real estate industry.
However, in the long run, it is difficult for the demand of China's commercial vehicle coating market to grow at a higher rate. This is mainly because as China's economic development enters a new stage, it is difficult to maintain a higher growth rate. At the same time, industrial upgrading, elimination of a large number of heavily polluting enterprises and replacement of old infrastructure by new infrastructure make it difficult to increase the demand for commercial vehicles.
New energy vehicle paint continues to be hot
In 2022, the global automobile industry ushered in a comprehensive electric transformation, and the sales of new energy vehicles continued to rise. According to the latest data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, China's auto production and sales reached 24.628 million and 24.302,000 units in the January-November period of 2022, up 6.1 percent and 3.3 percent year-on-year, respectively. Among them, the production and sales of new energy vehicles completed 6.253 million and 6.067 million, respectively, double the year-on-year growth, and the market share reached 25%.
The recent Central Economic Work Conference called for support for housing improvements and new energy vehicles. Industry analysis points out that, at present, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles is gradually rising, consumers' recognition of new energy vehicles is still improving, and the future demand is expected to be further improved. Nine million new energy vehicles are expected to be sold in 2023, up 35 percent year on year, according to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers. This means that 2023 new energy vehicle paint market demand is still strong.
Along with the explosive growth of new energy vehicle sales, the passenger car OEM coating business of foreign paint enterprises saw good growth in 2022. However, due to various factors such as the COVID-19 pandemic, the automotive repair paint market demand is sluggish. In addition, domestic and foreign coating enterprises have developed special coatings used in new energy batteries, opening up a new coating track, the track market space of about 20 billion yuan.
However, although the rapid rise of the new energy vehicles, but also means that the future sales of fuel car market or will be further shrunk, so the Chinese auto production and sales will not increase significantly, the demand growth of automobile coating market is slowing down. China's auto market is expected to reach 26.8 million units in 2022, up 2 percent year on year, according to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers. In 2023, Chinese automobiles will maintain a growth level of about 3%, and the total annual sales volume is expected to be about 27.6 million.
To be continued.